How Big Things Get Done

The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration

By Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner

Category: Psychology | Reading Duration: 15 min | Rating: 4.1/5 (335 ratings)

About the Book

How Big Things Get Done (2023) explores what it takes to make large-scale projects work. It tackles tough questions like why so many big projects fail, and what makes the ones that succeed stand out from the rest. With real-life success stories as well as cautionary tales, its lessons can be applied to projects of any size, shape, or form.

Who Should Read This?

• Project managers looking to hone in their skills
• Anyone about to embark on a new project or start a new business
• Fans of Elon Musk wanting to learn how he works his magic

What’s in it for me? Discover the secrets behind successful megaprojects.

Have you ever tried to tackle a big project, only to find yourself mired in delays, budget overruns, and unforeseen complications? Maybe you're a seasoned pro who's worked on major infrastructure projects, or maybe you're just a regular person who's tried to plan a large event. Either way, you know how frustrating it can be when things don't go according to plan. If that's the case, you're not alone.

Anyone who has ever tried to do something big knows that it's not always smooth sailing. But what separates those who succeed from those who fail? That's the question at the heart of this Blink to How Big Things Get Done. In it, you'll learn about the strategies and approaches used by people who have successfully completed big projects. And by exploring the reasons why other projects often run into trouble, you’ll learn what you should do – or not do – to make your next project more successful.

Chapter 1: The iron law of megaprojects.

We’ve all been there – you’ve started a big project with high hopes in mind, just for it to end in failure. Perhaps you embarked on a home renovation project and ended up with an empty wallet and unfinished bathroom. Or you watched a friend take on a project that seemed simple, only to spiral out of control and end in disaster. Well, if this is the case, you are not alone.

In fact, according to data from various fields and countries, the majority of big projects, whether they be government-funded or small home renovations, tend to go over budget and take longer than anticipated to complete. This is where the iron law of megaprojects comes in. It explains that huge, complex endeavors like building a new airport or a high-speed rail line almost always go over budget, over schedule, or both. It turns out that only 8. 5 percent of the 16,000 projects studied by the authors hit their targets for both cost and time. That's a staggering statistic!

Why is this the case? Because megaprojects rely on complex systems that are inherently difficult to predict and control. Unforeseen events, changes in requirements, and mismanagement can all contribute to delays and cost overruns. What’s more is that megaprojects often involve numerous stakeholders with varying interests – this can lead to disagreements and delays in decision-making. Now, you might be thinking, "But I'm not a government official or corporate executive, so this doesn't apply to me. " But that's where you're wrong.

Even small projects, like that bathroom renovation, are susceptible to cost overruns and time delays. Why? Because almost everything we do these days is embedded in complex systems. From energy production and distribution to the spread of viruses, we are all part of complex systems that are prone to disruptions and delays. For example, take a couple who, after buying a run-down house, get a builder to estimate the cost of a complete renovation. The builder quotes them $260,000, but 18 months later, the couple has already spent $1.

3 million and the project is far from done. That's the kind of cost overrun that we would expect to find in a fat-tailed distribution, which is a fancy way of saying that extreme events are more common than we think. And while big corporations and governments can just borrow more money or raise taxes to fund these overruns, most of us don't have that luxury. If a small business or individual gets caught in the fat tail of the distribution, they can be wiped out completely. That's why it's so important to take these risks seriously, no matter the size of the project.

Chapter 2: Avoiding the commitment fallacy.

Have you ever found yourself sticking to a project that isn't working out, simply because you've already invested so much time, effort, or money into it? If this is the case, you might be a victim of the commitment fallacy, which refers to the tendency to continue investing in a failing project or decision simply because we've already put so much into it. It's a common mistake made by policymakers and project managers who believe that by simply making a commitment to a particular course of action, they can overcome any obstacles that come their way. Unfortunately, this way of thinking often leads to disastrous results.

One example of this in action would be the California high-speed rail project. In 2008, voters approved a $9 billion measure to fund the construction of a high-speed rail line between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The project was expected to cost $33 billion and be completed by 2020. However, by 2019, the project was only 20 percent completed, with a projected cost of $80 billion – and a completion date of 2033. So, what went wrong? The policymakers fell into the commitment fallacy.

They made a commitment to the project without fully understanding the challenges they would face. They overestimated the public support for the project and underestimated the cost and complexity of constructing a high-speed rail line through California's varied terrain. One of the biggest challenges was acquiring the necessary land for the project. Landowners fought tooth and nail against the project, causing significant delays and driving up costs. Environmentalists also voiced concerns about the potential impact of the rail line on endangered species and other natural resources. Despite these challenges, policymakers continued to push the project forward, insisting that it was necessary for the state's economic growth and environmental sustainability.

They continued to commit more and more resources to the project, even as the costs and delays mounted. So, what can be learned from this experience? First and foremost, when getting a new project off the ground, be realistic about the challenges you might face. Don’t simply make a commitment and expect everything to fall into place. Instead, carefully consider the risks and challenges of any project before committing significant resources to it. Secondly, make sure to be transparent about the costs and risks of your project.

Learn from the mistakes of the California policymakers – they weren’t honest with the public about the challenges they would face, and the potential costs of their proposals. If they had, it would’ve helped to build public trust and support, even in the face of significant obstacles. Finally, always stay flexible throughout the duration of your project. Sometimes, even the best-laid plans go awry. When this happens, you’ll need to be willing to adjust your plans and adapt to changing circumstances. This will help you to avoid the commitment fallacy and ensure that you can achieve your policy goals in the most effective and efficient way possible.

Chapter 3: The power of thinking from right to left.

Have you ever faced a daunting task and felt overwhelmed just thinking about where to start? Or maybe you've had a big goal in mind but struggled to map out the steps needed to achieve it? It can be difficult to know where to start and how to get there. After all, we're not talking about small tasks – we're talking about audacious goals that require resources and coordination to accomplish.

Luckily, there's a method for breaking down these challenges, no matter what the scale of your project is. It's called thinking from right to left or reverse engineering, and it involves working backwards from your desired outcome to determine the necessary steps. This is in contrast to the more common left to right thinking, where you start with the present situation and try to figure out how to move forward. One example of this approach in action is the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain. The city was struggling economically and the local government wanted to revitalize the area. They recognized that a world-class museum could attract tourism and generate revenue, so they set their sights on bringing the Guggenheim to Bilbao.

Rather than starting with a plan for the museum itself, the government first focused on what they wanted to achieve: economic growth through tourism. From there, they worked backwards to determine what steps were necessary to achieve this goal. This included identifying the right location, partnering with a reputable institution like the Guggenheim, and investing in the infrastructure needed to support a major cultural attraction. By starting with the end goal in mind, the city was able to work backward and come up with a plan that would make the impossible possible. And the result was a building that not only looked incredible but also had a real impact on the local economy. In just three years, the Guggenheim Bilbao brought in almost $1 billion in tourism revenue.

So, how can you apply this concept in your own life? Well, when embarking on a new project, always make sure to start with the end goal in mind and then work backwards to identify the necessary steps. For example, if you want to start a business, instead of diving straight into the details of what your product or service will be, start by envisioning what success looks like for your business. This might include financial goals, a loyal customer base, or industry recognition.

From there, you can work backwards to determine what steps are necessary to achieve your vision. This might include market research, creating a business plan, and building a team of talented individuals. By taking this approach, you can ensure that every decision you make is aligned with your ultimate goal and avoid getting bogged down in the details.

Chapter 4: Find your Lego.

So, you're starting a big new project and wondering where to begin. Well, before you do so, consider this question: what's your Lego? It's the question that the world's most successful project leaders always ask themselves before embarking on something big. This is because all big projects harness the power of modularity, this being the key to making big things happen.

It's the idea of taking a small thing, like a Lego block, and repeating it over and over again until you've built something huge. You break down a big project down into smaller, more manageable pieces, and then put them back together again like a jigsaw puzzle. The beauty of modularity is that it enables experimentation. You can put down one Lego block, snap on another, and another, and another. And if something works, you keep it in the plan. If it doesn’t, you “fail fast” and adjust the plan.

That’s the genius of repetition – by making mistakes and learning from them, you'll get better and better with every iteration. Take wedding cakes, for example. Even the grandest wedding cake is mostly composed of a series of identical, flat, ordinary cakes. Stack several of those, and you get one tier. Bake more, stack them, and you get another tier. Assemble many tiers, and you get a great tower of cake.

But even if your individual cakes are baked correctly, your first attempts to stack cakes are likely to produce something that looks more like the Leaning Tower of Pisa than the magnificent monuments in magazines. That’s where repetition comes in. Bakers develop the ability to deliver perfect cakes only after trying many times, learning a little lesson here, a little lesson there. A modern-day master of modularity is Elon Musk. When he decided to build Gigafactory 1, the world's largest factory by footprint, he didn't try to tackle the whole thing at once. Instead, he started with a small factory, got it working, and then built another one next to it.

He repeated this process until he had built twenty-one "Lego blocks" that made up the whole facility. By doing it this way, Tesla was able to start producing batteries and earning revenue within a year of the announcement, even as work continued on the rest of the factory. And the same principle applies to all of Musk's ventures, including SpaceX. The idea is to shoot up the learning curve, accelerate delivery, and improve performance by using replicability and modularity in the planning and delivery process. So, what's your Lego? What's the small thing that you can repeat over and over again to make something big?

It could be anything, from a single line of code to a single product component. The important thing is that you break your project down into small, manageable pieces, and then focus on perfecting each one before moving on to the next. By doing it this way, you'll not only make your project more manageable, but you'll also give yourself the opportunity to learn and improve with each iteration. You'll be able to fail fast, adjust your plan, and ultimately make your project more successful. So, take a lesson from Elon Musk and start thinking modularly. Find your Lego, repeat it, and build something big.

Final Summary

The iron law of megaprojects states that large and complex projects almost always go over budget, over schedule, or both. Even small projects, like home renovations, are susceptible to cost overruns and time delays due to their complexity.

The commitment fallacy is the tendency to continue investing in a failing project or decision simply because we have already put so much into it, which often leads to disastrous results. To avoid this fallacy, be realistic about the challenges and transparent about the costs and risks. The process of reverse engineering or thinking from right to left can help individuals and organizations break down daunting challenges and achieve audacious goals. And finally, the key to making big things happen is modularity, or breaking a big project down into smaller, more manageable pieces, and repeating a small thing over and over again until something huge is built.

About the Author

Dan Gardner is a Canadian journalist and bestselling author, with a focus on psychology, social trends, and public policy. He has written several books, including The Science of Fear and Superforecasting. His work has appeared in major publications such as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Ottawa Citizen.

Bent Flyvbjerg is a professor of planning at Oxford University's Saïd Business School and a leading expert on the politics and management of megaprojects. He has published extensively on the subject, and his work has had a significant impact on the field of planning and project management.